banner

17_08

You call that counterfeiting? This is counterfeiting! - Hello Friends as always i would invite you to join and Promote one of the world's premier top rated investment companies and pioneers in alternative assets: market investment in and purchasing of alternative asset classes including gold, precious metals, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency for direct purchase investors, the vast US market of IRA, 401k and other retirement account holders, the Canada market for RRSP and TFSA holders (precious metals), high net worth individuals and families (HNWI), and more. Mutl-trillion dollar potential market with one of the highest paying affiliate programs in the world.

• Life changing income potential: up to $30,000+ commission for each and every referred customer transaction
• 100% free affiliate marketing program - No cost for you to join or participate in
• 3% commission on all gross client sales transaction amounts for all present and future sales and investment in precious metals and cryptocurrency
• You are also paid $30 - $100 for each qualified lead
• Example: average sale = $65,000 = $1,950 commission; sales easily = 6 and sometimes 7 figures. $100,000 sale = $3,000 commission and $1,000,000 sale = $30,000 commission
• Some affiliates have made $40,000+ to $100,000+ commissions in a single month
• Lifetime revenue share on customer transactions

Join NOW Exclusive Affiliate Program ✅ CLICK HERE Join Exclusive Affiliate Program

Disclosure: The owner(s) of this website may be paid to recommend Regal Assets. The content on this website, including any positive reviews of Regal Assets and other reviews, may not be neutral or independent.

One of the world's most notorious cases of counterfeiting was the 1925 Portuguese banknote crisis, when Artur Virgilio Alves Reis managed to pass off 200,000 fake five-hundred escudo notes, worth around £56 million in 2016 terms. When the Bank of Portugal discovered the counterfeits in December 1925, it announced an aggressive demonetization of the five-hundred escudo note, giving citizens just twenty days to bring in old notes for redemption. By then, the damage had been done. Reis had managed to increase Portugal's supply of banknotes by 5.9%, spending the equivalent of 0.88% of Portugal's nominal GDP into circulation! (More here.)

An aggressive note demonetization in the face of large-scale counterfeiting is a thoroughly justified response as it immediately puts a halt to the problem. In this context, it's worth revisiting the world's most recent attempt to combat counterfeiting with an aggressive demonetizationIndia PM Narendra Modi's forced recall of the Rs1000 and 500 notes on November 9, 2016, some 290 days ago. How does it compare to Portugal in 1925?

If we go back to Modi's initial speech, India's demonetization was targeted at the three "festering sores" of corruption, black money, and terrorism. On the latter, Modi said:
Terrorism is a frightening threat. So many have lost their lives because of it. But have you ever thought about how these terrorists get their money? Enemies from across the border run their operations using fake currency notes. This has been going on for years. Many times, those using fake 500 and 1,000 rupee notes have been caught and many such notes have been seized.

Given Modi's fighting words, we'd expect the demonetization to have caught quite a bit of bad currency. Last month, finance minister Arun Jaitley revealed how many counterfeit notes had been detected:

Source

Translating Rs11.23 crore into dollar terms, the monetary authorities have found just US$1.7 million worth of counterfeit notes. Step back for a moment and compare $1.7 million to the full breadth and width of the demonetization. In declaring that all Rs1000 and 500 notes were to be useless, Modi  demonetized US$240 billion worth of paper rupees, around 85% of India's stock of banknotes. So only 0.001% of the entire face value that has been brought in for conversion was fake! That's an incredibly low value of counterfeits, especially when you consider that in 1925, Reis's counterfeits accounted for around 5% of the entire Portuguese paper money supply. 

Central bankers usually measure counterfeiting in parts per million, or PPM, the number of fakes detected in one year for every one million genuine notes in circulation. I've inserted a chart below, which comes from this Reserve Bank of Australia document. Canada, for instance, once had a much higher PPM (it even hit 450 back in 2004), but the Bank of Canada managed to bring this down to the low double digits by introducing new security features and, later, polymer notes.



Australia, the first nation to introduce polymer notes in the early 1990s, used to boast one of the lowest incidences of counterfeiting (below 5 PPM). Criminals are finally starting to make polymer fakes, perhaps because the RBA hasn't bothered to update the series for over two decades, giving plenty of time for counterfeiters to catch up.

In India's case, the recent numbers show a total of 158,000 fake notes detected (out of a 24 billion banknotes demonetized) between November 8, 2016 and July 14, 2017, this totaling up to a minuscule 6.6 PPMin the same range of countries like Canada or Australia. And certainly not in the same category as Portugal in 1925.

Nor is this data anomalous. Back in January, James Wilsonan Indian civil engineer-turned-demonetization expertperused official banknote statistics only to find that over the last few years India has not had a high incidence of counterfeit rupees, leading him to describe the demonetization effort as a cannon shooting at sparrows. Using some of the data from James' post, it's possible to calculate that India had a PPM of 7.1 in 2015/16. (I get this from 90.266 billion units of currency in circulation, and 632,926 counterfeits detected that year). This is consistent with earlier data from the Reserve Bank of India showing a PPM from 2007-2012 ranging between 4.4 to 8.1. So India's rate of counterfeits detected is fairly reasonable relative to other countries.

This low PPM could be due to two factors. Either India doesn't have a counterfeiting problem, or it does have one but the authorities are just really bad at detecting counterfeits. If neither Indian banks nor its central bank are particularly good at identifying fake notes, then a large stock of unidentified fakes may be permanently circulating along with legitimate banknotes with no one capable of draining out the fakes. But even so, why instigate a massive note recall to catch counterfeits if the institutions that do the catching are so leaky to start with? If it is the case that India has a counterfeiting problem, then Modi's go-to fixes should have been to improve note security features and the banking system's ability to detect fakes, not implement a massive Portuguese-style recall.

So the data certainly destroys one of the pillars on which Modi's demonetization was based; terrorism and fake currency. You need something like a Portugal in 1925 to justify an aggressive demonetization, and India wasn't even close. Over the next few months more data will pour in, expect Modi's scheme to be further tested.




P.S. The title is cribbed from here:


DIVERSIFY and GROW YOUR IRA WITH METALS and CRYPTOS
REQUEST YOUR FREE 2021 INVESTORS KIT
Kit includes information on our company, products and fees.
Bonus: you will also receive free DVDs and a 10 year anniversary silver coin.
✅ CLICK HERE Claim Your Free Investor Kit

your advertise here
Next article Next Post
Previous article Previous Post
Themeindie.com