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Fourth quarter 2020 earnings reports are nearing an end as 495 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported results. Refinitiv's report dated March 5, 2020 notes results have come in better than history. Nearly 80% of companies have reported earnings above analyst estimates, exceeding the long-term average of 65%. Expectations for the next two quarters shows earnings growth accelerating with the second quarter 2021 estimate currently indicating growth of 51.2% on a year over year basis.
The below chart shows the 12-month forward earnings growth estimate along with the S&P 500 Index. The strong earnings recovery supports a similar recovery in the S&P 500 Index. S&P earnings for calendar year 2021 are estimated to equal $174 versus $141 in 2020. The earnings expectation for calendar year 2022 is now over the $200 threshold at $201.
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