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A number of factors will influence the price of oil over time, but the supply level and active rig count provide useful insight. Other variables come into play as well, like Middle East conflicts and the level of the U.S. Dollar. The price of West Texas Crude has increased from around $15 per barrel in April of 2020 to its current $66 per barrel. On the surface it seems oil inventory levels are at a sufficiently high level, as the green line in the below chart indicates, that oil prices should not continue to trend higher at a pace similar to the pace over the last year. With the rig count beginning to turn higher, additional oil supply will eventually find its way onto the market; however, there is a lag in oil production growth vis-à-vis rig count growth.
Consumers are important to economic growth, accounting for nearly 70% of the economy, and higher gas prices reduce the consumer's discretionary spending. On the positive side though, according to Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity, energy spending by the consumer garners less of their disposable income as seen below.
Lastly, gasoline inventory remains elevated too and not unlike the crude oil inventory level noted earlier. This higher inventory will provide some headwind to higher prices.
For investors, often times the direction of the change in these oil figures can be as important as the levels. So, as economies continue to open more and pent up demand results in more activity, a spike in energy prices can still occur. For the moment though, oil inventory levels seem sufficient to provide some constraint to higher prices that would impact the consumer.
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